Fundamental Analysis

As expected the ECB kept all its key interest rates unchanged. The ECB also decided that it will conduct its main refinancing operations (MROs) and its special-term refinancing operations with a maturity of one maintenance period as fixed-rate tender procedures with full allotment until at least the end of the

Fundamental Analysis

Trichet was out putting everyone to sleep again today with nothing of particular note. There were tiny shifts on the comments on upside and downside risks, with discussion of downside risks countered by an upgrade to the projections for 2011 GDP growth (though the range was a still rather wide

Fundamental Analysis

The euro ticked slightly higher against the dollar Thursday, finding support from a successful auction of Spanish government debt that was taken as another sign that concerns over euro-zone sovereign issues have faded to the background. The euro was steady after the European Central Bank early Thursday left key interest

Fundamental Analysis

There was little to read into Thursday's initial claims report ahead of an expected 100,000 dip for U.S. employment throughout August. Yet the better tone indicated by the health of global manufacturing and what earlier appeared to be a bolt-out-of-the-blue in the shape of returning consumer confidence continues to weigh

Fundamental Analysis

After yesterday's risk-taking rocket ride the obvious reaction is to sit and watch for a reaction. Will traders take the opportunity to sell after yesterday's strength? And if so is it profit-taking or simply an opportunity to get short? Or is yesterday's strength a sign that traders and investors are

Fundamental Analysis

Initial unemployment insurance claims dropped -6,000 to 472,000 for the week ending August 28, following the previous week's surprising -26,000 drop to a 478,000 level (upwardly revised from the previously reported 473,000 level). Expectations were for a slightly higher level of claims of 475,000. The four-week moving average of initial

Fundamental Analysis

A couple of U.S. data points have forced several bears to rethink the prospects for the world's largest economy. Strength in consumer sentiment and manufacturing output have also lowered demand for dollars for fear of a second recessionary wave. It remains curious as to why the pressure remains on the

Fundamental Analysis

Markets consolidated after yesterday's surge in risk with the dollar trading softer ahead of key events. While the ECB's rate announcement is not likely to have a profound impact as the bank is widely expected keep rates at their current level of 1%, the press conference to follow may stir

Fundamental Analysis

Markets are in neutral mood this morning and I doubt there will be any changes until tomorrow's Non-Farm Payrolls from the US, and the usual speculative, rumor-driven trading on a Friday afternoon. Hence, for today I expect EURUSD to tread water around 1.2800 supported by big volume expiries at 1.2800

Fundamental Analysis

The GBP exhibited a weaker tone during the European session as softer economic data weight upon the currency. GBP/USD retesting the 1.54 handle while EUR/GBP was firmer by around 50 pips in the session at 0.8335 area. The EUR/USD maintained a foothold above the 1.28 handle but remained below the

Fundamental Analysis

As we have highlighted earlier markets seems to have over-interpreted the dovishness of the latest FOMC statement. Information received since the release has generally painted a less worrying message than the impression obtained from the statement. In particular, the balance sheet status quo reasoning for reinvesting the MBS and agency

Fundamental Analysis

The rally in risk appetite boosted by strong Chinese and Australian data yesterday was further encouraged after our last article by stronger than expected US ISM numbers. Forex risk correlated currencies, such as the Euro, moved lock-in-step with the data. EURUSD rallied above 1.2800 and the S&P climb above 1080.

Fundamental Analysis

Sterling found support on dips to 1.5320 on Wednesday and rallied to a high at 1.55 as risk appetite improved and the dollar faltered. Sterling was unable to sustain the gains and was back on the defensive during Thursday. Underlying confidence in the UK economy is liable to deteriorate, especially

Fundamental Analysis

Today's economic fundamental hold basic information from the 16-nation economy, where the preliminary reading for the second quarter was reported showing the fastest pace of expansion in nearly four-years. The seasonally adjusted preliminary reading for the second quarter GDP showed that the economy managed to expand by 1.0 percent from

Fundamental Analysis

The ECB meeting will be uneventful if you are looking for rate hikes. The main refinancing rate will be kept at 1% and will not be increased anytime soon despite Trichet’s attempts to put on a brave face about the health of the economy. Germany is basically the only sound

Fundamental Analysis

The ECB meeting will be uneventful if you are looking for rate hikes. The main refinancing rate will be kept at 1% and will not be increased anytime soon despite Trichet's attempts to put on a brave face about the health of the economy. Germany is basically the only sound

Fundamental Analysis

Yesterday, global markets started the new month in an optimistic mood. This left its traces on the currency market. EUR/USD made a nice rebound and took out first resistance levels. EUR/GBP made a similar move, reinforced by a poor UK PMI for the manufacturing sector. Given the optimism on other

Fundamental Analysis

The euro fell against the yen in Asia on Thursday on the view that European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet may take a less hawkish line on monetary policy at an upcoming press conference.

Fundamental Analysis

The Dollar Traded strong as Chinese manufacturing data sent stocks higher in Asia and Europe and this accelerated in the US session on better than expected August ISM data at 56.3 vs. 55.5 previously. We also released August ADP Employment at -10k vs. +19k forecast. In US stocks the DJIA

Fundamental Analysis

Asian equity markets have opened on a positive note this morning following the strong gains posted in the US session yesterday on the back of increased risk seeking resulting from better than expected economic data out of the US. The ISM manufacturing index bettered analysts estimates at 56.3 actual v