Fundamental Analysis

Another week closes with the promise of a deal on the Greek PSI debt swap. The urgency for such a deal is rising with a hard deadline of 13 February approaching. The coming week will be a question of sequencing. The coming days should see Greece agree with the Troika

Fundamental Analysis

On the heels of a better-than-expected print for nonfarm payrolls, today's ISM non-manufacturing survey lifts expectations for further job gains in the coming months. Indeed, the employment component soared to 57.4 the highest level in almost six years. In a typical month, the ISM non-manufacturing index comes out just

Fundamental Analysis

January's increase of 243,000 in nonfarm jobs continued the string of monthly job gains in many sectors as evidenced by the positive turns in all three super sectors shown in the top graph. Consistent monthly gains have been evident in business services, education, health and leisure and hospitality. Hiring in

Fundamental Analysis

The ISM non-manufacturing index showed that the service sector expanded in January 2012 and that the pace of growth accelerated sharply as indicated by the gauge rising to 56.8 from 53.0 in December 2011 (a reading above 50 indicates that the sector is generally expanding; higher readings indicate a faster

Fundamental Analysis

PMIs from most of the world increased in January, signalling an improvement in global industry. For Europe, the numbers support our view that the sharpest fall in production in this recession happened in Q4 11 and that the European economies are on course for positive growth rates again in Q2 12.

Fundamental Analysis

The immediate reaction to the strong US employment data was rather bifurcated, so while USDCAD AUDUSD and USDJPY have largely followed our script in the wake of the report the action against the European majors have so far not done so, likely due to the very significant upside surprise

Fundamental Analysis

Today's non-farm payroll data came in very strong with an uptick in manufacturing hiring adding to robust gains in the services industries. This has strong implications for risk assets, and the prospects for the US economy as well as for global growth. The reaction was a strong gain in US

Fundamental Analysis

US non-farm payrolls rose 243k in December. Net revisions were +3k. This was the second month in a row that employment has risen by more than 200k. This is very encouraging in light of the low expectations, as most saw December's increase in service employment as a product of temporary

Fundamental Analysis

Today's report provided the encouraging news that both employment gains strengthened going into 2012 and the unemployment rate moved lower. Despite this improvement, however, the unemployment rate remains historically high. To assure further improvement in labour market conditions, the Fed will continue to keep monetary conditions highly accommodative. Our forecast

Fundamental Analysis

Data have been running hot and cold, with today's employment report showing little change in employment after declines in two of the previous three months. On net, the labour market generated 20,000 new jobs since September 2011. Canada's labour market is showing signs of fatigue after very strong growth in

Fundamental Analysis

Our US Employment preview pointed to a gain in payrolls of 130,000, which was10,000 below consensus, but the reality is that the US economy added 243,000 jobs in January. We are more than pleased about our miss, however, as the US labour market, undeterred by seasonality which usually hurts January

Fundamental Analysis

USD is slightly weaker and sentiment is moderately higher after better than expected services PMI figures in Europe. Asian equities were mixed and European stock markets and U.S. stock futures are currently trading to the upside. UST yields are relatively unchanged ahead of key data. Markets have consolidated and are

Fundamental Analysis

Better European Services PMI data coupled with continued optimism that a Greek bailout deal would occur soon boosted risk appetite in the session. Price action was light ahead of the key US non-farm payroll data but the session saw a softer USD and an easing in the peripheral bond yields.

Fundamental Analysis

As this busy week comes to an end, the sentiment returns once again to advance in the market after the confirmed improvement in the performance of the European services sectors, which spread optimism in the market ahead of the critical jobs report from the world's largest economy.

Fundamental Analysis

Several of the major USD pairs are at pivotal levels ahead of the US employment report and ISM non-manufacturing survey. The outcome of these key reports could be decisive as major USD pairs are at interesting pivot levels.

Fundamental Analysis

Another positive surprise in UK data land today, as the Purchasing Manager's Index, (PMI), for the Services sector of the economy came out at 56.0, surging past expectations for 53.3. Given this sector accounts for 75 percent of the UK economoy and that the Manufacturing Sector PMI, released on Wednesday,

Fundamental Analysis

Talks between Greece and its private sector creditors have still not come to a conclusion and there has been a complete absence of updates on progress this week raising the uncomfortable possibility that negotiations drag on into another week. The immediate consequences of this lack of resolution are clear;

Fundamental Analysis

Between month end madness on Tuesday and Non Farm Friday funnies today this market is not living up to normal February liquidity, volume or rationality. Yesterday’s price action around Merkel’s visit to China spruiking her wares and Premier Wen’s half finished/half translated sentences certainly gives you an indication of exactly

Fundamental Analysis

On Thursday, the risk rally slowed, making it even more difficult for the euro to force a break higher than over the previous days. Japanese authorities are becoming very nervous on the strength of the yen. Today, the payrolls might decide to which side the domino will fall, both for

Fundamental Analysis

It is that time of the month again - time for arguably the most followed data release, namely the US Employment report. Despite its significance we managed to find an a few more numbers also worth watching today.