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EURUSD The 1.34 zone is under renewed pressure as the Euro failed once again to break the resistance at 1.3750 on yesterday. Intraday studies are bearish and the Euro aims towards support at 1.3440/50. Daily resistance is formed at 1.3630/50 and the stronger barrier at 1.3750/60. If the decline resumes, a break below 1.3440 can open a deeper move to 1.3360 and 1.3260. Current quote is 1.3572 @06:45 GMT Support levels: 1.3500/10, 1.3440/50 and 1.3360. Resistance levels: 1.3550, 1.3630, 1.3700

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------------------------------------------------------------ INTRA-DAY USD/JPY OUTLOOK :                  99.18 Updating time :10 Oct 2008 02:51 GMT Although dlr has rebounded after finding brief buying at around 98.79 n further choppy trading is seen, as long as 99.67 holds, another fall is still likely, however, breach of said sup lvl is needed to extend weakness to 98.20/30 later. Stand aside n look to sell on

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. Bias:          While 100.25-35 caps I look for losses to 96.80 at least else we could revisit the 101.46 peak

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EURUSD The resistance at 1.3740/50 is still on focus after two failed tests and a potential break may extend gains towards the 1.39 mark within the next trading sessions. Intraday studies are bullish at the time of this writing but the dailies remain highly bearish. Support starts at 1.3640 backed by 1.3550 and 1.3500. Resistance follows 1.3750 at 1.3800 and 1.3900. Current quote is 1.3695 @06:40 GMT Support levels: 1.3640, 1.3550, 1.3500/10 and 1.3440/50. Resistance levels: 1.3700,1.3740/50

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-------------------------------------------------------- INTRA-DAY GBP/USD OUTLOOK :            1.7265 Updating time : 09 Oct 2008 06:13 GMT Current anticipated rebound suggests further consolidation abv intra-day low at 1.7173 wud be seen with upside bias for another corrective rise twds 1.7300 but reckon res at 1.7322 wud hold fm here n yield further sideways trading. Buy again on dips with stop as indicated, only below 1.7200 wud risk

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******************************************* INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK :              1.3645 Updating time :09 Oct 2008 05:39 GMT Although euro has retreated after intra-day re- bound fm 1.3580 to 1.3702 n consolidation with mild downside bias is seen, break of 1.3610/20 is needed to confirm top is made n bring another fall to 1.35 80 but sup at 1.3544 shud hold fm here. Abv said res wud extend gain to 1.3745/50. As nr term outlook is

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------------------------------------------------------------ INTRA-DAY USD/JPY OUTLOOK :                  100.80 Updating time :09 Oct 2008 03:40 GMT Dlr's intra-day rally fm 98.90 remains in pro- gress n gain twds 101.17 cannot be ruled out, how- break is needed to signal corrective rise fm 98.60 low to retrace recent decline has resumed n yield further gain to 101.48 n posisbly 101.75. Stand aside for now n look

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. Bias:          I suspect we'll see a move back higher to 141.04-25

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Price development and real economy After following an upward trend for the past eight months, the inflation rate will likely decline in September to an annual rate of 4.8%, down from 5.0% in August. The seasonally lower prices of vegetables and lower prices of oil should help to contain growth in cigarette prices in September. Outlook for the final quarter of the year depends on whether the regulatory body okays the hike in energy prices for households (demanded by the gas distributor) or not.

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******************************************* INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK :              +1.3630+ Updating time :08 Oct 2008 08:24 GMT As euro has rebounded after intra-day retreat fm 1.3690 to 1.3612, suggesting consolidation with mild upside bias wud be seen but break of said res is needed to retain bullishness n extend gain twds 1.3743 later. Buy again on dips with stop as indicated, break wud risk weakness to 1.3550/60... Range

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Danmarks Nationalbank (DN) decided earlier today (7 October) (17.00CET) to raise its lending rate from 4.60% to 5.00%. The discount rate and the interest rate on the banks' current accounts with DN are raised by 0.25% to 4.50%. All interest rate increases are effective from 8 October 2008. Both the decision to hike rates, the magnitude by which rates have been hiked and the timing of the rate hike will surprise markets, although the likelihood that the bank would hike has increased in recent

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EURUSD The Euro gained against the dollar on yesterday, testing resistance into the 1.3740/50 region before falling back below the 1.36 mark. Intraday support is formed at 1.3550 backed by 1.3500/10 and 1.3450. Resistance starts at 1.3650 followed by 1.3700 and 1.3740/50. The downside remains under pressure since the Euro failed to hold its gains into the 1.37 zone and the decline may resume if the support at 1.3550 breaks. Intraday studies are bearish. Current quote is 1.3576 @06:40 GMT

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. Bias:         I suspect the correction is complete but wait for a break above 1.1086 should extend gains to 1.1187 at least

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------------------------------------------------------------ INTRA-DAY USD/JPY OUTLOOK :                  101.45 Updating time :08 Oct 2008 00:21 GMT Failure to break 101.06 n present rebound fm 101.10 suggest further choppy trading wud be seen n gain to 101.78/80 cannot be ruled out, however, renewed selling shud emerge below 102.08 n yield another decline later. Stand aside in the meantime n look to sell again on

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-------------------------------------------------------- INTRA-DAY GBP/USD OUTLOOK :            1.7447 Updating time : 07 Oct 2008 23:28 GMT Cable's intra-day weakness suggests near term fall fm y'day's high at 1.7660 may extend to 1.7410 , however, firm break there is needed to confirm correction fm 1.7320 has ended at 1.7660 n yield subsequent weakness to 1.7363/70. Stand aside for now n look to sell on further recovery as 1.7559 wud cap

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Summary: FX markets have experienced pronounced shifts on the back of the worsening financial crisis. From implied volatilities we note that investors expect FX movements to remain substantial in the coming months (see chart 1). In this note we answer two essential FX related questions: 1) How should we inter-pret the approval of the US Troubled Asset Relief Programme (TARP) in relation to European govern-ments’ attempts to ensure financial stability? Here we conclude that EUR/USD can fall

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EURUSD The downside is under high pressure as the Euro fell to its lowest level since August 2007, testing bids at 1.3440 on yesterday. The intraday studies are now bullish and the current rebound may extend towards resistance levels at within the 1.37-1.38 region. Near term support is eyed at 1.3500 and 1.3440/50. Minor resistance at 1.3650 is on focus now and a potential break will most likely encourage further gains towards the mid 1.37 region, filling yesterday's gap. Current quote is

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. Bias:        Cautiously I feel we can see additional losses to 0.6952 at least - only below extends to 0.6880

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• There has recently been some modest pressure on the DKK. We have reason to believe that this is due to the negative FX forward spread. Danmarks Nationalbank (DN) intervened to a limited extent in September - only DKK0.7bn. In this note we look at the factors affecting EUR/DKK.  • Around this time of year, we are usually being asked about two things: First, whether the coupon money due in mid-November could have an impact on EUR/DKK if foreigners do not reinvest their proceeds. Second,

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EURUSD The Euro has reached a fresh low after the 130 points gap at today's open. Current levels are extremely bearish for the Euro and no signs of a rebound are seen yet. The decline will probably continue towards key support levels at 1.3330 and 1.2870 (last year's low) if support into the 1.33 region won't hold. Intraday studies are bearish and resistance emerges at 1.3600 followed by 1.3670, 1.3750 and 1.3900 higher. Minor support is seen at 1.3550/60 backed by 1.3500 and 1.3450. Downside

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------------------------------------------------------------ INTRA-DAY USD/JPY OUTLOOK :                   104.50 Updating time :06 Oct 2008 00:40 GMT Despite dlr's breach of 104.48/50, lack of strg follow through selling n present rebound fm 104.24 suggests minor consolidation wud be seen in Asia n recovery to 104.85 cannot be ruled out, however, reckon 105.15/20 shud cap upside n yield selloff. Below 104.24

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. Bias:        While 1.7697 supports I still feel we can see the correction higher continue

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EURUSD The Euro recovered some lost ground today after reaching fresh lows at 1.3745 on yesterday. Nearby resistance is on focus at 1.3885/00 followed by 1.3950 and 1.4 . Support starts at 1.3800 backed by 1.3745 and 1.3690. Intraday studies are bullish at the time of this writing and large moves are possible today due to the NFP data release in the US. Current quote is 1.3865 @06:35 GMT Support levels: 1.3840, 1.3800, 1.3745/50 and 1.3690.  Resistance levels: 1.3885/00, 1.3950 and 1.4

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. Bias:        While 1.1340 caps I feel a pullback below 1.1290 will extend losses to 1.1227 and 1.1185 at least

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EURUSD The Euro continues is under renewed pressure since the psychological bottom at 1.4 has been broken and the recent low at 1.3880 is on focus. A sustained break of the said support may open 1.3690. Both daily and hourly studies are bearish. On the upside, resistance starts at 1.4 followed by 1.4080 and 1.4160. Below 1.3880 support is formed at 1.3840, 1.3750 and 1.3690. Current quote is 1.3944 @06:35 GMT Support levels: 1.3880/85, 1.3840, 1.3750 and 1.3690.  Resistance levels: 1.4,

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-------------------------------------------------------- INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK :            1.3941 Updating time : 02 Oct 2008 05:36 GMT Although current retreat suggests recent decline may extend marginal weakness to 1.3915/20, loss of momentum shud limit downside to 1.3900 n yield re- bound but abv 1.3990/00 is needed to confirm temp. low is formed n bring correction twds 1.4030/35. Buy on next fall with stop as indicated, break wud risk

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******************************************* INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK :              1.3983 Updating time :02 Oct 2008 04:28 GMT Although euro has rebounded after intra-day brief fall to a marginal low at 1.3931, abv indica- ted res at 1.4015 is needed to signal temp. low has been formed there n bring retracement of recent de- cline to 1.4040 n later twds 1.4070/80. Below 1.3931 wud extend weakness to 1.3900/10 b4 correction due to

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------------------------------------------------------------ INTRA-DAY USD/JPY OUTLOOK :                   105.82 Updating time :02 Oct 2008 02:39 GMT Dlr's cross-inspired retreat fm 106.29 suggests caution on our intra-day long n 105.62/68 must hold for prospect of another rise, abv 106.29/34 wud sig nal upmove fm this week's low at 103.50 n bring re- test of 106.54 1st. Trade fm long side with stop as

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. Bias:       The 1.3955 area looks important along with 1.3880-20 and only below suggests sustained losses

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EURUSD The Euro continues to press lower testing bids at 1.4010 on yesterday. The downside remains on focus as the daily studies are bearish and a resume of the decline may extend losses towards recent low at 1.3880 which is a key medium term support barrier. Minor support is seen at 1.4000/10 and 1.3950. On the upside, resistance starts at 1.4160 followed by 1.4215/25 and 1.4300. Potential retracements are expected to be sold therefore the upside will most likely be limited by the resistance

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. Bias:       This part of the rally should stall between 106.48-69 and cause a pullback to 105.29-75 before higher again

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EURUSD The Euro is again under pressure, leaving the 1.45 zone behind. Support is seen at 1.4300 backed by 1.4260 and 1.4160. Resistance starts at 1.4430 followed by 1.4500 and 1.4615. Daily momentum is losing strength and may turn bearish soon if the pair Euro continues to weaken and fall below 1.4260. The hourly studies are bearish at the time of this writing. Current quote is 1.4365 @06:30 GMT Support levels: 1.4300, 1.4260 and 1.4160. Resistance levels: 1.4430, 1.4500 and 1.4615. Market

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-------------------------------------------------------- INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK :            1.4355 Updating time : 30 Sep 2008 02:32 GMT Although euro has fallen after meeting renewed selling around 1.4400/05 n consolidation with mild downside bias remains, below 1.4303 (y'day's low) is needed to signal recent decline fm 1.4867 has once again resumed, 1.4260/70. Stand aside n look to sell on recovery as only abv 1.4430/35 suggests intra-day

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. Bias:      While 1.0409 supports I still see potential for 1.0513 and 1.0558

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******************************************* INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK :              1.4355 Updating time :30 Sep 2008 02:32 GMT Although euro has fallen after meeting renewed selling around 1.4400/05 n consolidation with mild downside bias remains, below 1.4303 (y'day's low) is needed to signal recent decline fm 1.4867 has once again resumed, 1.4260/70. Stand aside n look to sell on recovery as only abv 1.4430/35 suggests intra-day

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******************************************* INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK :              1.4371 Updating time :29 Sep 2008 23:19 GMT Euro has fallen o/n NY high at 1.4572 on active cross selling vs yen n consolidation with downside bias is seen but below 1.4303 (y'day's low) needed to signal recent decline fm 1.4867 has once again resumed, 1.4260/70. Stand aside n look to sell on recovery as only abv 1.4430/35 suggests intra-day low made,

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------------------------------------------------------------ INTRA-DAY USD/JPY OUTLOOK :                   103.84 Updating time :29 Sep 2008 23:08 GMT As dlr has fallen sharply in NY on cross selling following rejection of the U.S. bailout plan, sug- gesting recent decline wud resume after consolidat- ion n below 103.53 (Aust.) wud extend to 103.20/30 but o/sold condition shud limit downside to 103.00. Stand

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In this note we consider the details of recent US initiatives to deal with the financial crisis as well as implications for financial markets, including currencies. It now seems highly likely that the USD 700bn TARP (Troubled Asset Relief Program) will become a reality after weekend negotiations resulted in a deal between US government and Congress. Relative to the original plan, the revised plan includes restrictions on executive pay as well as increased oversight of the Treasury. It also

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-------------------------------------------------------- INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK :            1.4422 Updating time : 29 Sep 2008 06:35 GMT Although euro has fallen after brief recovery to 1.4473 n recent decline is likely to extend to 1.4400, loss of nr term momentum shud prevent sharp move below 1.4370/74 n risk fm there has increased for a rebound later. Wud not chase this move here n stand aside. Abv 1.4450 wud bring pullback to 1.4473 n

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******************************************* INTRA-DAY EUR/USD OUTLOOK :              1.4422 Updating time :29 Sep 2008 06:35 GMT Although euro has fallen after brief recovery to 1.4473 n recent decline is likely to extend to 1.4400, loss of nr term momentum shud prevent sharp move below 1.4370/74 n risk fm there has increased for a rebound later. Wud not chase this move here n stand aside. Abv 1.4450 wud bring pullback to 1.4473 n