FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

U.S. Review: Off to a Good Start for the Year The employment report for January showed that 243,000 jobs were added with the unemployment rate declining slightly to 8.3 percent. The details of the report however, suggest that unseasonably warm weather may be playing a role in the stronger job gains. The ISM-Manufacturing Index posted a marginal improvement in January as new orders jumped for the month. Export orders also posted a nice increase suggesting that the effects of a Eurozone slowdown

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

F – Ford Motor Co. – The better-than-expected jobs number out this morning revved up investor appetite for automobile stocks, driving shares in Ford Motor Co. up 4.0% to $12.75. Call options on the U.S. automaker are flying off the shelves, with nearly 5 calls in play on the stock for each single put option traded. The single-largest transaction in Ford options appears to be a bull call spread that yields maximum possible profits if the price of the underlying rallies nearly 20.0% during the

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

Thank you for choosing DeCarley Trading. We are proud to offer the DeCarley Perspective as an informational guide to our clients and subscribers. We hope that you walk away from the newsletter with a better understanding of market fundamentals, as well as technical and seasonal factors. **There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. **Past performance is not indicative of future results On the radar: • "Crude" sell-off? Crude Oil We issued a DeCarley Perspective newsletter

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

Nonfarm payroll growth accelerated for the third consecutive month, up 243K in January following a upward revision of 60K combined for November and December The unemployment rate fell to 8.3% but was likely influenced by a drop in the participation rate Nonfarm payroll growth beat consensus expectations in January, jumping 243K following upward revisions to both November (from 100K to 157K) and December (from 200K to 203K). Gains were led primarily by a 257K rise in private sector hiring, with

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

The golden rule shortly signed… …What about the “activity� side? Portugal under stress The new Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union is circulating in a quasi-definitive version, although an arrangement still has to be found on the procedure for referring cases to the European Court of Justice. After the treaty is signed, probably in March, it will have to be ratified by each country. It will enter into force as soon as 12 out of the 17 eurozone

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

Factory orders increased for the second consecutive month, at 1.1 percent, after posting an upwardly revised 2.2 percent gain in November. This adds to the positive news on the state of the U.S. manufacturing sector. New Orders Slowed Down in December The pace of growth in new orders slowed a bit in December, growing by 1.1 percent after an upwardly revised 2.2 percent gain in November. Excluding transportation, new orders increased by 0.6 percent, higher than the 0.5 percent increase in

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

The ISM non-manufacturing index climbed 3.8 points to 56.8, the strongest reading for service sector sentiment in almost a year and firmly in line with a view towards economic expansion. More Good News for Jobs On the heels of a better-than-expected print for nonfarm payrolls, today’s ISM non-manufacturing survey lifts expectations for further job gains in the coming months. Indeed, the employment component soared to 57.4—the highest level in almost six years. In a typical month, the ISM

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

Nonfarm employment rose by 243,000 in January, as hiring gains continued in professional services, construction and manufacturing. Hours worked improved and suggests continued economic expansion. Solid Job Gains—A Story of Economic Expansion January’s increase of 243,000 in nonfarm jobs continued the string of monthly job gains in many sectors as evidenced by the positive turns in all three super sectors shown in the top graph. Consistent monthly gains have been evident in business services,

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

Private payroll employment expanded 257,000 in January, the best showing in nine months. This figure was all the more impressive as it came on the heels of a 220,000 gain in December. Recent hiring trends have been particularly beneficial to industries where men figure more predominately. As today’s Hot Chart shows, cyclical industries such as manufacturing, mining & logging, construction and transportation & warehousing added a total of 94,000 jobs in January – one of the best showing

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

Market Movers ahead Following a week of improved economic indicators, we are headed for a light data calendar, with consumer confidence the most interesting data in the US in the coming week. However, we expect a Greek PSI deal to be struck very soon, so we might know more about the losses that investors will suffer on their holdings of Greek debt as early as Monday. The ECB will probably take some comfort from the slightly brighter economic outlook but leave rates as they are. We expect

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

US non-farm payrolls surprised on the upside, rising 243k. Net revisions in previous months were +3k. This was stronger overall than consensus of 140k and our estimate of 135k. The unemployment rate also surprised by falling further to 8.3% – the lowest level in three years. The payrolls income proxy rose 5.3% (3M AR), which provides a solid base for consumption growth. With the second major gain in a row, the 3M average is still around 201k – unchanged from the previous two months. We believe

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

The last day of the trading week which has been dominated by news about the Greek debt swap deal is virtually devoid of any new information on the matter. Despite every day declarations made by various officials that the PSI agreement is very close to being finalized, doubts are growing over whether it will happen in the nearest future. The meeting of the Eurogroup planned for Monday, February 6, where the problem was supposed to be discussed, probably will also be canceled. Still, various

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

OPINION: Canadian employment remained essentially unchanged in January, a performance well below consensus expectations for a 22K gain. One silver lining of this report is the performance of the private sector (+19.7K). This sector increased headcounts for a third month in a row thanks to solid performance of the manufacturing sector which benefits from improvements south of the border. Despite this rebound, private sector jobs in Canada still remain below last July’s peak due to the massive

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

The January labour market report is extremely positive, with243 000 jobs created. Details show the strength was across the board, with strong figurse for manufacturing, construction and private services. Additionally, the unemployment rate reached its lowest since February 2009. This should be enough to reassure FOMC members about the strength of the recovery. The January labour market report is extremely positive. Non-farm payrolls grew by 243 000 over the month, accelerating from an already

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

Economists are speculating that the Employment report will show that the US employers raised payrolls in January. This has caused the USD to lose grounds against the euro which has gained against the Yen. The dollar had gained considerably against the Euro as Greek’s government struggled to come up with a solution to the debt crisis. Bad news from the region’s heads meeting had weakened the euro. A Rabobank International’s Senior Currency strategist Jane Foley insisted that the Payroll report

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

Outlook: Payrolls and nothing but payrolls will dominate the first few hours of NY action today. But even a good number that promotes risk appetite is not really “good.� The Economix blog at the NYT notes that while the US economy has grown for 10 quarters, the share going to wages and salaries has fallen from 57.6¢ on the dollar for the past 50 years to 44¢ in Q3 2011. “If you include workers’ benefits in the calculation for the third quarter, the share of national income received by workers

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

The much anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls showed the U.S economy added 243k jobs last month, well surpassing the analyst expectation of 130k. Furthermore, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell by 0.2% t0 8.3%. Heading in to the release the markets were uncertain over the dollar’s reaction. Positive news had the possibility of a dollar sell-off as investors reduced safe haven exposure. However, good data also reduces the chance of further quantitative easing which is essentially dollar positive.

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

Gold’s London AM fix this morning was USD 1759.50, EUR 1,335.48, and GBP 1,110.66 per ounce.  Yesterday's AM fix was USD 1,747.50, EUR 1,326.68, and GBP 1,102.80 per ounce.   Gold prices hit their highest since mid-November this morning as signals that U.S. monetary policy will remain ultra loose increased investor appetite for bullion.  Gold bullion has gained over 12% so far in 2012, and the ascent was rejuvenated last week with Bernanke’s commitment to keep interest rates low

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

Forex traders, join the daily All Things Forex broadcast- a live one hour program covering Forex and major economic events, trend developments,research, analysis, ideas, education, live traders forum, interviews with some of the most respected names in the trading world, and much more.. In the broadcast today: EUR, GBP and USD New Trading Week Outlook. With the European Central Bank and the Bank of England meetings scheduled in the week ahead, we explore the impact of the monetary policy

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

As always, yesterday saw a mixed day for the dollar. Principally this wasn’t as a result of the events of yesterday but because of the Upcoming NFP report which has the ability to move the markets significantly. The upcoming report made many USD traders yesterday confused on which stand to take for fears that today’s report might significantly hurt their positions if they got it wrong yesterday. EUR/USD closed the day at 1.3145 just 7 pips off the day’s start meanwhile USD/CHF closed with a

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

In January, the business activity index in the services sector was up from 54.0 in December to 56.0, back to its highest level since last March. Furthermore, it signals that activity in services has probably rebounded at the beginning of the year, after having stagnated in Q4 2011. Consequently, the composite PMI for January rose from 51.5 in December to 53 in January, pointing that activity accelerated at the beginning of this year. If this trend is to continue in the coming months, it seems

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

Despite the debt crisis facing the Eurozone, the region has seen growth in services and manufacturing in the month of January. As the EU leaders meet to develop an appropriate solution to the Greece’s debt crisis, Germany and France has recorded an impressive increase in services and manufacturing arena. According to a Markit Economics report, a composite Index for the region rose from 48.3 to 50.4 in the month of January. This reading of above 50 indicates an expansion in the economy of the

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

Policy-makers in Tokyo are writhing in discomfort over the latest pop in the Japanese currency, with USD/JPY down to near 76 from nearer 78 a week ago. Japanese Finance Minister Azumi has weighed in, claiming that it is partly the fault of the Federal Reserve for the recent advance. He also suggests that it reflects “short-term speculative buying�, although this assertion is inconsistent with traderpositioning reports such as the CFTC. More likely is that some investors have been buying the

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

The most important data of non farm payroll is coming out later in the day. Markets are waiting and hence Euro was silent throughout the Asian session. It traded within a range of 1.3113 and 1.3155. The fact that it remained above 1.3100 indicates that the bullish bias is intact. It has taken off during the European session. It has printed a high of 1.3183.The support may be seen at 1.3155 and 1.3120. The resistance may be seen at 1.3200. A clear break above 1.3200 will open the doors on the

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

The euro rose against the U.S. dollar on Friday trading, yet probably heading for a weekly decline, on expectations U.S. jobs report will show rise in non-farm payrolls, thereby enhancing risk taking. The main highlight of the day will be the awaited non-farm payrolls report from the U.S. due at 13:30 GMT. The change in non-farm payrolls is predicted to retreat to 140,000 in January from 200,000 in December, while unemployment could linger at 8.5%. However, the euro will probably record a

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

EUR/USD Forecast Fundamental Analysis Economic Events: (GMT) 09:30 GBP Services PMI 53.5 54.0 The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

EUR/CHF Forecast Fundamental Analysis Economic Events: (GMT) 09:30 GBP Services PMI 53.5 54.0 The Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services sector. A reading above 50 indicates expansion in the sector; a reading below 50 indicates contraction. Traders watch these surveys closely as purchasing managers usually have early access to data about their company’s performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

The Canadian employment change is an important leading indicator which has a significant impact on the markets. Traders and analysts carefully scrutinize employment figures, and a reading higher than forecast could is bullish for the loonie. Indicator Background Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. The release of the employment change indicator simultaneously with the unemployment rate is highly anticipated and is often a market-mover.

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

European Market Update: Better major European PMI Services data continues to aid risk appetite; US non-farm payroll data in focus for any additional momentum Economic Data - (EU) ECB: €1.5B borrowed in overnight loan facility v €2.0B prior; €488.7B parked in deposit facility vs. €486.4B prior - (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply Narrow w/e Jan 30th (RUB): T vs. 6.80T prior - (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) leaves the Refinancing Rate unchanged at 8.00%; As expected - (IE) Ireland Jan NCB Services

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

ECB's February monetary policy meeting draws market attention as many think another 25 bps rate cut is imminent, although it is not sure whether Mario Draghi will proceed with it next week , or will want to wait a little longer. The BoE on the other hand will surely maintain interest rates unchanged; there is however a possibility it will announce another round of QE. In the opinion of Adam Narczewski, the ECB "is strongly considering another interest rate cut." The question remains when Draghi

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

They say February has so far been the month of love for the euro, but yesterday we saw no ounce of love for the euro. Not that we saw a very weak euro yesterday, we simply saw an indecisive day that ended slightly out of favor of the euro. EUR/USD struggled but couldn’t get past the 1.3200 resistance, then fell to a daily low of 1.3085. However during the American session we saw the pair regain some strength though it was not enough to end the day on a winning note. It closed the day at 1.3145,

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

As this busy week comes to an end, the sentiment returns once again to advance in the market after the confirmed improvement in the performance of the European services sectors, which spread optimism in the market ahead of the critical jobs report from the world's largest economy. The purchasing managers' final indexes for services from the euro-area region, Germany and France confirmed the improvement in the services sectors in January, as we can see the French sector advanced to 52.3 from

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

Headlines: CEE currencies unchanged before US data CNB cuts growth forecast to 0.0% from 1.2% in 2012 Central European currencies have been waiting on the sideline before US payroll data this afternoon. Investors have also become more cautious about the outlook after the sharp rally of the forint and the zloty over recent weeks and bond yield levels are also trading in a narrow range. The Czech central bank held its monthly meeting yesterday and decided 6-0 to keep the base rate unchanged at

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

The “Story That Never Dies� may have a date with the executioner. It was announced yesterday that a meeting this upcoming Monday (Feb 6 th ) is the new deadline for the parties to agree on all things Greek. Firstly, the size of the haircut that private investors must take on their holdings alongside what the ECB will do with its holdings. Secondly, the size of another bailout, which is rumoured to be around the EUR130bn mark and finally, further austerity measures from the Greek government.

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

There is perhaps no more controversial energy source after nuclear than "hydraulic fracturing," or "fracking," of subterranean shale deposits containing pockets of natural gas. While the process can liberate previously unusable sources of natural gas, political, environmental and scientific concerns have risen along with production, as evidence mounts that fracking is responsible for everything from polluting subterranean aquifers to causing regional earthquakes. But no matter - during his 24

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

In the week ended the 28th of January, US initial jobless claims dropped by 12 000, from an upwardly revised 379 000 to 367 000, while the consensus was looking for only a slight decline to 371 000. The less volatile four-week moving average dropped somewhat lower too, from 377 750 to 375 750. The Labour Department added that there we no special factors at play. Continuing claims, which are reported with an extra week lag, dropped to a new cyclical low. In the week ended the 21st of January,

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

On Thursday, the rollercoaster ride of the EUR/USD cross rate continued. The news flow was again thin and provided a mixed input for the EUR/USD price action. Sentiment on Europe remained reasonably constructive (cf Spanish bond auction) but the euro didn’t succeed any additional gains. No spectacular news to report on EUR/USD trading on Thursday. The pair traded in the high 1.31 area in Asia and at the open of the European markets. European equities took a pause after the recent rally and

FXstreet.com: Fundamental
FXstreet.com: Fundamental. Get the grip on the macro-economic picture with the most respected firms.

The growth potential of different regions of the world in 2012 will depend in large part on the underlying credit environment, both for government and corporations. At this juncture, North America is well positioned. The euro zone sovereign debt uncertainty notwithstanding, corporate bond yields in North America remain near record lows. That is good news for large firms but what about the small and medium sized enterprises who tend to be more dependent on the banking sector for their financing