FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
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Thank you for choosing DeCarley Trading. We are proud to offer the DeCarley Perspective as an informational guide to our clients and subscribers. We hope that you walk away from the newsletter with a better understanding of market fundamentals, as well as technical and seasonal factors. **There is substantial risk of loss in trading futures and options. **Past performance is not indicative of future results On the radar: • "Crude" sell-off? Crude Oil We issued a DeCarley Perspective newsletter

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

The golden rule shortly signed… …What about the “activity� side? Portugal under stress The new Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union is circulating in a quasi-definitive version, although an arrangement still has to be found on the procedure for referring cases to the European Court of Justice. After the treaty is signed, probably in March, it will have to be ratified by each country. It will enter into force as soon as 12 out of the 17 eurozone

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

The last day of the trading week which has been dominated by news about the Greek debt swap deal is virtually devoid of any new information on the matter. Despite every day declarations made by various officials that the PSI agreement is very close to being finalized, doubts are growing over whether it will happen in the nearest future. The meeting of the Eurogroup planned for Monday, February 6, where the problem was supposed to be discussed, probably will also be canceled. Still, various

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

Outlook: Payrolls and nothing but payrolls will dominate the first few hours of NY action today. But even a good number that promotes risk appetite is not really “good.� The Economix blog at the NYT notes that while the US economy has grown for 10 quarters, the share going to wages and salaries has fallen from 57.6¢ on the dollar for the past 50 years to 44¢ in Q3 2011. “If you include workers’ benefits in the calculation for the third quarter, the share of national income received by workers

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

The much anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls showed the U.S economy added 243k jobs last month, well surpassing the analyst expectation of 130k. Furthermore, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell by 0.2% t0 8.3%. Heading in to the release the markets were uncertain over the dollar’s reaction. Positive news had the possibility of a dollar sell-off as investors reduced safe haven exposure. However, good data also reduces the chance of further quantitative easing which is essentially dollar positive.

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

Forex traders, join the daily All Things Forex broadcast- a live one hour program covering Forex and major economic events, trend developments,research, analysis, ideas, education, live traders forum, interviews with some of the most respected names in the trading world, and much more.. In the broadcast today: EUR, GBP and USD New Trading Week Outlook. With the European Central Bank and the Bank of England meetings scheduled in the week ahead, we explore the impact of the monetary policy

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

The euro rose against the U.S. dollar on Friday trading, yet probably heading for a weekly decline, on expectations U.S. jobs report will show rise in non-farm payrolls, thereby enhancing risk taking. The main highlight of the day will be the awaited non-farm payrolls report from the U.S. due at 13:30 GMT. The change in non-farm payrolls is predicted to retreat to 140,000 in January from 200,000 in December, while unemployment could linger at 8.5%. However, the euro will probably record a

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

The Canadian employment change is an important leading indicator which has a significant impact on the markets. Traders and analysts carefully scrutinize employment figures, and a reading higher than forecast could is bullish for the loonie. Indicator Background Job creation is one of the most important leading indicators of overall economic activity. The release of the employment change indicator simultaneously with the unemployment rate is highly anticipated and is often a market-mover.

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

Headlines: CEE currencies unchanged before US data CNB cuts growth forecast to 0.0% from 1.2% in 2012 Central European currencies have been waiting on the sideline before US payroll data this afternoon. Investors have also become more cautious about the outlook after the sharp rally of the forint and the zloty over recent weeks and bond yield levels are also trading in a narrow range. The Czech central bank held its monthly meeting yesterday and decided 6-0 to keep the base rate unchanged at

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

The “Story That Never Dies� may have a date with the executioner. It was announced yesterday that a meeting this upcoming Monday (Feb 6 th ) is the new deadline for the parties to agree on all things Greek. Firstly, the size of the haircut that private investors must take on their holdings alongside what the ECB will do with its holdings. Secondly, the size of another bailout, which is rumoured to be around the EUR130bn mark and finally, further austerity measures from the Greek government.

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

There is perhaps no more controversial energy source after nuclear than "hydraulic fracturing," or "fracking," of subterranean shale deposits containing pockets of natural gas. While the process can liberate previously unusable sources of natural gas, political, environmental and scientific concerns have risen along with production, as evidence mounts that fracking is responsible for everything from polluting subterranean aquifers to causing regional earthquakes. But no matter - during his 24

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

On Thursday, the rollercoaster ride of the EUR/USD cross rate continued. The news flow was again thin and provided a mixed input for the EUR/USD price action. Sentiment on Europe remained reasonably constructive (cf Spanish bond auction) but the euro didn’t succeed any additional gains. No spectacular news to report on EUR/USD trading on Thursday. The pair traded in the high 1.31 area in Asia and at the open of the European markets. European equities took a pause after the recent rally and

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

Currencies EUR/USD headed for a weekly decline against all of its 16 major peers as Greece and its creditors struggle to reach an agreement on a debt swap. The euro was little changed at $1.3140 as of 2:40 p.m. in Tokyo from $1.3144 in New York yesterday, set for a 0.6 percent weekly decline. USD/JPY traded within one yen of a postwar high versus the dollar, raising speculation the country will intervene to weaken it. The yen traded at 76.19 per dollar from 76.22. It rose to as high as 76.03

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

Market Brief Yet another day goes by without a resolution to the Greek bond swap talks; meaning we are still sat with a major hurdle preventing risk appetite from accumulating or EURUSD from making further upside progress. Yesterday, the EU's Rehn said he expects an agreement between Greece and its private sector creditors by end of this week; a comment which is only likely to increase the potential for disappointment if that timeline is not met. He added that Greece must make decisive steps

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

Fundamental Analysis EUR “With the [Spanish] economy now expected to be in recession over the next few quarters, employment is set to shrink for a fifth straight year� - Raj Badiani, an economist at IHS Global Insight Inc. Spanish unemployment claims rose by the most since 2009 in January as the country entered its second recession in three years. The number of people claiming unemployment benefits jumped by 177,470 to 4.6 million, the Labor Ministry said on Thursday. “For countries like Spain

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

Market wrap Markets consolidated. US equities failed to extend the mini-rally rally 30 January, the S&P500 currently unchanged on the day despite the mildly positive news fl ow. Spanish and French government bond auctions were successful, China’s Premier confirmed it was considering greater involvement in the EFSF and ESF Eurozone rescue funds, and Fed Chairman Bernanke reiterated to Congress his frustration with the slow pace of US economic recovery (leaving the door open for QE3) while

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

US weekly jobless claims registered better than expected at 367k, the lowest since June ’08; Fed Chairman Bernanke hints at further monetary easing; EUR remains well supported despite signs that Greek debt talks may be stalled and as European officials raise concerns that the region’s other steps to build a firewall are too little too late; JPY remains within 1% of its all-time high against the USD after the Fed pledged to keep interest rates low through 2014 making the reduced cost of

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

It was a tale of two cities in the performance of 2 oil benchmarks. The sharp increase in oil supplies in the US continued to weighed on WTI crude oil prices while tensions over Iran boosted Brent crude prices for another day. Gold strengthened further on the Fed's easing prospect and weakness in the US dollar. The market sentiment fluctuated during the day, being lifted by Chinese Premier Wen's comments on European debts but then damped by the cold water poured by Jean-Claude Juncker, Head of

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

Australian Dollar The Australian Dollar gained 20-30 points during local trade yesterday after it was announced our trade surplus increased to 1.71 billion dollars from a previous 1.38 billion. With markets expecting a slight reduction the news came as a pleasant surprise, lifting the Aussie from levels just above 1.07 to 1.0730. Concurrently, building approvals dropped 1% in the month of December although the markets chose to overlook this in favour of a positive trade release. With markets

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

Visit DeCarley Trading's website to sign up for our next Free trading webinar...FOREX Trading Math! Up to 50% off of Carley Garner's books at BN.com, use promo code G2C3DJDYC9867 (mystery discount taken upon check out on one item) While scouring the headlines of business news websites and ran across a few that included the text "time to buy stocks". I always find it interesting that the equity markets are the only place where people look to buy things after they have become more expensive. If

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

Visit DeCarley Trading's website to sign up for our next Free trading webinar...FOREX Trading Math! Up to 50% off of Carley Garner's books at BN.com, use promo code G2C3DJDYC9867 (mystery discount taken upon check out on one item) There is no doubt that Treasuries are overvalued from a long-term perspective, but in the short run there is no measure of just how irrational investor behavior can become. Remember the negative yields for bills in 2008? Accordingly, bears shouldn't complacently

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

Hopes of an imminent agreement between Greece and its private bondholders were dashed on Thursday due to the opposition of some of the Greek political leaders towards additional spending cuts demanded by the lenders as well as a disagreement between the IMF and Germany on the involvement of the ECB in the bond swap. Greece's creditors doubt the country's ability to carry out all the necessary reforms in order to reduce debt and they demanded additional austerity measures. Greek officials

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

Which political party will do a better job at preserving the purchasing power of the U.S. Dollar? A common tenet amongst Treasury Secretaries, irrespective of their political affiliation, has been a claim that the U.S. pursues a strong dollar policy. To find out, let’s look at what type of tax and regulatory policies foster a strong dollar. Supply and demand determine the value of anything tradable, including a currency. Noteworthy with regard to the value of a currency is a country’s current

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

Outlook: Here it is Thursday and no Greek deal yet, despite promises on Monday that it would get done this week. The markets are showing remarkable patience, and at a guess, it’s LTRO that fosters the patience. Not only does the nearly €500 billion and expected $1 trillion in late Feb push out a Lehman-style liquidity crisis and save the banking sector, but these sums are big enough to cover a lot of sovereign issuance. The ECB did a splendid job. The FT’s Martin Wolf points out that the

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

The euro slipped against the U.S. dollar on concerns the negotiations between the Greek government and private-sector bondholders didn't make any progress. Currently, Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos is looking for support from political leaders to launch further austerity and reforms needed to convince international lenders to give Greece a second bailout worth 130-billon-euro announced in October amid concerns Greece may fail to repay as much as 14.5 billion euros of debt maturing on

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

Fundamental Analysis EUR "The merger between Deutsche Boerse and NYSE Euronext would have led to a near-monopoly in European financial derivatives worldwide" - Joaquin Almunia, competition commissioner The European Commission has blocked a 9 billion dollar merger between Deutsche Börse and NYSE Euronext stock exchanges, saying that it would have stifled competition and created a monopoly in derivatives trading. USD "The job market continues to grow at a moderate pace" - Jonathan Basile, senior

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

Headlines: Regional PMIs point to diverging tendencies… Polish manufacturing surprisingly grows, while Czech continues to decline Regional PMIs show diverging tendencies within the region. Polish PMIs surprisingly turned back above 50, level indicating expansion. It rose for the first time since October and posted the third steepest one-month gain in the survey history to 52.2, from 48.8. What is maybe even more important is the fact that while the production continues to decline, new orders

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

What are you all worried about, huh? UK manufacturing PMI came out of the traps like a rocket yesterday, bouncing back into positive territory with the strongest number since May 2011. Orders also rose at the fastest pace since March but, as we like to caution, one swallow does not make a summer and the manufacturing sector is by no means secure at the moment. The release did drive the pound onwards yesterday with gains against the dollar and the euro immediately after the announcement.

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

The first month of 2012 passed rather more positively than anticipated and clearly was a good month for risky assets. Even the beleaguered EUR strengthened despite calls for an extended decline. Assets that were most heavily sold over 2011 were the biggest winners over January. Further signs of improvement in US economic data, receding fears of a China growth crash and even signs of tentative progress in the Eurozone debt crisis mean that sentiment may have finally turned a corner. This has

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

Unemployment Claims in US and Construction PMI in the UK are the major market-movers. Let see what awaits us today. In the US, Unemployment Claims, monthly indicator to value the unemployment insurance that was filed on the last week, is predicted to drop down from 377K to 373K this week. More in the US, Ben Bernanke, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman is about to testifies in Washington DC Later in the US, Prelim Nonfarm Productivity, value the labor efficiency for goods and services production

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

On Wednesday, EUR/USD continued the volatile intraday trading pattern of the previous days. Once again, there was hardly any concrete news to guide the price action. ‘Risk on’ sentiment pushed EUR/USD back to the 1.32 resistance, but once again a sustained break didn’t occur. Yesterday morning, EUR/USD dropped temporary below the 1.3050 area just before the open of the European markets. Sentiment in Asian was far from euphoric even as the Chinese PMI came about above the 50-line, while a

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

Currencies EUR/USD The 17-nation euro held yesterday’s gain versus the greenback after German Chancellor Angela Merkel said Europe must be united in protecting stability in the currency. The dollar dropped 0.1 percent to $1.3178 per euro as of 6:37 a.m. in London from $1.3161 in New York yesterday when it slid 0.6 percent. USD/JPY A gauge of volatility for the yen climbed to the highest this year amid speculation Japan will intervene in the foreign-exchange market. The Japanese currency traded

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

Market Brief Risk appetite has consolidated overnight, with Asian equity markets following European and US markets higher. The Nikkei is up +0.8%, Hang Seng +1.6% and Shanghai Composite + 2.0 %, while EURUSD has managed to remain above 1.3150 for most of the session. Contributing to this uptick in sentiment is undoubtedly the easing of stress in European bond markets, as well as the largely encouraging manufacturing surveys released throughout yesterday. Clearly, the underlying problems in

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

The US Unemployment Claims indicator is published weekly, and measures the number of people filing for unemployment for the first time. A reading which is higher than the market forecast is bearish for the dollar. Indicator Background Unemployment claims is an important economic indicator of consumer confidence in the economy. It helps measure future spending behavior, as consumers are more likely to spend if they are confident that their jobs are secure and unemployment is stable or dropping.

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FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

A Brighter Outlook for Domestic Lenders Stronger C&I loan demand as business and consumer confidence climb Residential lending continues to weigh on bank balance sheets Stability in consumer credit likely to continue through 2012 C&I Credit: Business confidence drives demand as lending standards remain tight In the Federal Reserve’s Senior Loan Officer Survey (SLOS) for 1Q12, commercial banks reported stronger demand for commercial and industrial (C&I) loans. Survey respondents

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FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

Market wrap Risk sentiment improved, supporting all the major asset classes. Improved economic data certainly helped, starting with the consensus-beating Chinese manufacturing PMI and then including a stronger UK manufacturing PMI and US ISM manufacturing survey. In Euroland, EU President Rompuy declared the Eurozone debt crisis had reached a turning point, citing the recent reversal in peripheral bond yields. German Chancellor Merkel is reportedly about to ask China to contribute to the

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

US ISM falls short of forecasts at 54.1, but remains at a 7-month high; ADP falls short of expectations at +182K; Manufacturing in both Germany and France surprised to the upside, quelling fears of an imminent region-wide recession; Commodity Currencies gain the most against the dollar with the ZAR up nearly 2% on the resurgence in risk appetite after global manufacturing outpaces expectations. The USD pared yesterday’s gains against nearly all of its major counterparts as markets breathe a

FXstreet.com: Fundamental: Fundamental Market View
FXstreet.com: Market View. Have access to the latest market reports that will help you in your trading decisions.

Markets chose to be 'risk on' once again due to recent positioning concerns, as investors acknowledge that a general soft landing globally may be avoided. Broad-based upbeat manufacturing readings around the globe reaffirmed the conviction that concerns over a global economic slowdown may be overdone. Witth regards to the hot issue of having a resolution on the Greek debt-swap negoatiations, Greek Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos assured during a parliament committee meeting that the Greek