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USD : Lower, inventories drop more than expected, stocks rally JPY : Lower, BOJ ease speculation, weak machinery orders EUR: Higher, German exports drop sharply, industrial production rises in Italy and France GBP : Lower, industrial production posted an unexpected decline, concern about UK debt rating CAD and AUD : AUD & CAD higher, strong Chinese trade data, stocks and crude rally Overview USD traded in a narrow range gaining versus JPY and GBP, and drifting lower versus the EUR and

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Comment: Almost, but not quite. While Gold gets all the hype, spot Palladium is by far the best performer, increasing in value by 240% over the last twelve months (as compared to bottom of the pile Gold at 124%). The only other metals that come close are Nickel (225%) and Copper (210%). Last week it closed at a new high for this year, but just below 75% Fibonacci retracement resistance, which is a pity really. Allow for several weeks of consolidation under the psychological $500.00 area, where

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US wholesale inventories are lower than expected but not featuring very highly on FX traders' radar. EUR/USD remains cemented in its range, while Cable is still short of a close above the 1.4940 level that would likely relieve some of the downside pressure. PB

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Published at 14:15 (GMT) 10 Mar 9:15 EST - USD/BRL is not seeing any solid downside momentum around the 1.773 to 1.75 zone. Though, there is still time for one more push toward the 1.75 barrier before the mkt forms a S/T bottom. We would use a close above the upper TL at 1.809 as a breakout signal if seen in the day(s) ahead. R.Z

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The British pound tumbled to below $1.50 on Tuesday on weak economic data and as credit ratings firms warned on Britain's sovereign rating and those of its commercial banks. Political uncertainty about a hung parliament as the latest opinion polls showed a close race in key marginal seats also hurt the pound, as well as a general pullback in riskier assets. The pound was also hit after Fitch Ratings said Britain's sovereign credit profile had deteriorated, and urgency for fiscal adjustment was

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Most of the foreign currencies futures open as expected in the US, with all the European and commodity currencies but the pound up, and the yen down. The pound, which remains the weakest of the major European currencies, was hurt today by an unexpected contraction of the UK industrial production. Meanwhile, the euro failed to benefit properly from strong regional industrial production reports because it remains marred by the Greek financial tragedy. The US economic agenda remains barren for a

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Published at 12:10 (GMT) 10 Mar As our colleague Ben Levett wrote earlier, the Reuters source story about a possible BoJ ease at the monetary policy meeting next week is plausible, if only because they do need to roll over their 3 month opps! But though the impact has been to see a weaker JPY, it is perhaps a little bit of a surprise that Reuters didn't make more of a splash with it! At the same time we also note reports of exporter offers beginning at 90.50, and becoming larger nearer to 91,

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Forex News and Events: Overall trading has been insipid in the Asian session, a testimony to the lack of real drivers out there. And while we have seen some decent volatility in FX, pairs have not broken out of mid-term ranges. Interestingly, equity indexes continue to climb higher with S&P closing on the resistance at 1150, VIX safely below 20 and Crude prices steadily rising to $82.00bll. The Australian data was mixed with consumer confidence up 0.2% to 117.3, but owner occupied housing

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Published at 09:32 (GMT) 10 Mar GBP made up all the losses from the European open ahead of the IndProd data, but surprise fall there has reversed it again. The weather (and a strong December) are getting the blame, but no one needs much reason to sell GBP just now. PB

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Headlines Crude slightly corrects previous gains Stronger greenback weights on precious metals Rise in Chinese imports returns copper above 7500$/t

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Published at 08:54 (GMT) 10 Mar 10 Mar EUR/NOK Daily 08:45 - The extended balance at 8.04 or so continues to fill out- narrowing between 8.00 and 8.10 but close to retesting the l/t downtrend (at 8.08 or so now.) L/t position is still weak (separated lower from 8.12) so a 7.93-0~ test has to be feasible shortly. [NR] R5: 8.1265 * 21-Jan low R4: 8.114 * 20-Jan low R3: 8.08~ downtrend fr Nov R2: 8.0645 9-Mar high R1: 8.04~ * Feb-Mar range pivot S1: 8.007 5-Mar low S2: 7.9915 * 18-Feb low S3:

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Quote: ‘My father had a fierce work ethic. At one point, when I was nine or ten years old and the family was barely scraping by, Dad decided he’d cut our hair himself. He did such a bad job that he left bare patches on our scalps, then he filled in the bald spots with pencil and said no one would notice.’ Hank Paulson (1946-) The News: Australian January mortgage lending –7.9% on higher rates and end of government grants, biggest decline in almost 8 years, surprising everyone. The Numbers:

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EUR/USD The pair approached the main target at 1.3525 to return and fluctuate around MA 50. Stochastic entered overbought areas; therefore we expect a bearish intraday direction that targets 1.3525 and then will attempt to breach it and head towards 1.3430. It is vital that trading remain below 1.3685 to maintain chances of achieving this suggested scenario. The trading range for today is among the key support at 1.3430 and the key resistance at 1.3705. The general trend is to the upside if we

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Published at 06:52 (GMT) 10 Mar Prices slipped past the 31.750-mark into afternoon trades as most regional pairings trekked lower on the positive China trade data. USD/TWD was seen pressured to 31.729 lows so far and Taiex closed modestly higher at 0.11%. Expect inflows to continue capping upsides though intervention threat is seen below - could see the central bank coming in to prop up prices just before closing. Meanwhile, some focus on this: a bank official said that the central bank has

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Today’s Comment Industrial production in the UK has finally begun to grow following the solid fall, but the increase is still only marginal. It is a little worrying that the advance was not stronger during a period with a weak exchange rate and improvement in the global economy. The economic-trend indicators for manufacturing industry do, however, point in the right direction, and we anticipate that industrial production will increase in January. Pound sterling is currently under pressure due

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The much hyped Chinese trade balance data failed to ignite any dynamic moves as currency pairs in Asia remained confined to ranges once again. Chinese trade balance data that many had assumed would instigate moves in risk today failed to do so as it came in on target at 7.6B, down from last month’s 14.2B. However, Exports came in at 45.7% vs. the projected 38.3%, but did nothing but spark talk of inflation and overheated markets. Market watchers are now looking ahead to tomorrow’s Chinese data

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Published at 06:34 (GMT) 10 Mar Recap on Greece; focus on the BIG THREE GPs in Greece - Mr GEORGE Ps - are all working very hard to restore confidence in Greece - Prime Minister GEORGE Papandreou, Finance Minister GEORGE Papaconstantinou and Greek Central Bank Governor GEORGE Provopoulos. Focus on any more fresh and new comments from Greek PM, Greek Finmin, Greek CB Governor - with focus ahead of next week March 16 deadline given by Eurogroup after the crisis meeting. EUR/USD at 1.3596-99,

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The stock market indices ended up on the day after a late snapback rally brought them back from a sharp afternoon sell-off. The day started out, however, with a bit of a dip lower, and then immediately reversed and rallied strongly. The Nasdaq 100 rallied from 1886 to 1911, and the S&P 500 from 1135 to 1145. In the afternoon when they couldn't make any further progress and an early afternoon rally failed to take out the late morning highs, the indices rolled over, dropping the NDX from

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Published at 05:50 (GMT) 10 Mar   SHARETHIS.addEntry({ title: 'Chart USD/IDR Update: Intraday trade threatening downside', url: 'http://www.fxmarketalerts.com/free/document.aspx?utm_campaign=SampleReports_ShareIt&utm_source=SampleReports&utm_method=ShareIt&codes=d7ac030a-2133-4a08-a102-c64609b36b06' }, { button: true, onmouseover: false }); Intraday strength seen early this morning capped by the 9215 resistance and prices are now leaning towards the 9170 low and break will trigger renewed

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The Ultra Oil & Gas ProShares ETF (NYSE: DIG) popped above key Feb-Mar resistance at 34.40/50 to a recovery high at 35.05, after which it revisited the breakout level into this morning’s low at 34.25. This morning’s upside pivot reversal from 34.25 has propelled the DIG to a higher recovery high at 35.10 so far. The fact that the price structure is holding above the breakout plateau (34.25) within a larger base-like pattern that projects to 37.50 next is a very constructive sign. At this

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Euro Stumbles as Policy Officials Voice Their Doubts over Greece and an EMF Solution  British Pound Hit by Data and Credit Rating Warnings  Japanese Yen Benefits from Carry Unwinding and Strong Signs of Economic Recovery Dollar Avoids a Trend Once Again after Retracing Risk Aversion Gains Through Tuesday’s Asian and European trading hours, the US dollar was set into a moderate bull trend that was facilitated by a distinct rise in uncertainty and the resultant flight-to-safety flows.

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Morning Briefing : 10-Mar-2010 - 0333 GMT GOOD MORNING! EQUITIES The US Equities ended higher yesterday. The Dow (10564.38) closed up 0.11% and the Nasdaq (2340.68) closed up 0.36%. The Dow looks up and may move towards 10700 in the coming sessions. The Asian Equities are trading lower today. The Nikkei (10559.05) is trading down 0.08% post a 3.7% drop in Japan’s machinery orders in January 2010 as against a jump of 20.1% in December 2009. The Nikkei is finding it difficult to break above the

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The foreign currencies futures xxx in the Far East after a divergent day of trading on Tuesday, when the commodity currencies and the yen advanced and the European currencies fell.   The Asia/Pacific stock markets, while oil and gold   The short-term outlook is slightly bullish for the European and commodity currencies and marginally bearish for the yen. The medium-term outlook remains bearish for the European currencies and sideways for the yen and the commodity currencies. My model

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Yen Strength Returns U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) was able to make solid gains in Europe as the Greece fears resurfaced on news Fitch may still downgrade the embattled country. US stocks turned positive however and the market pared back some of the Dollars gains. In US stocks, DJIA +11 points closing at 10564, S&P +1 points closing at 1140 and NASDAQ +8 points closing at 2340. Looking ahead,Crude Oil Inventories are forecast at 2.1mn vs. 4.1mn previously. The Euro (EUR) slumped in Europe

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Published at 01:32 (GMT) 10 Mar   USD/JPY at 89.95-00 - hearing 2-way flows : FY repatriation/ exporters vs offshore investment/toushin; some focus on the GPIF investment flows, NKS: The Govt Pension Investment Fund (GPIF) plans to maintain its current asset allocations for 5 years starting in fiscal 2010 in line with Welfare Minister Akira Nagatsuma's preference for the status quo. The pension fund manages about Y122 trillion ($1.36tln) of the nation's public pension assets.

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Published at 01:26 (GMT) 10 Mar Trade seen last few sessions remain choppy and with current neutral stance seen on daily technical tools, further consolidation is expected into intraday play. Support is seen at 6.6250 and need move below latter to trigger stronger selling towards 6.6180 ahead of 6.6050. R5: 6.6880

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EURO The euro depreciated vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.3535 level and was capped around the $1.3635 level.  Greek Prime Minister Papandreou said U.S. President Obama is “supportiveâ€� of the fiscal measures Greece is taking to improve its economic situation.  Papandreou added “We’re not askin for a bailout…we’re not asking for financial help from anyone.â€� The European Union today reported it is considering bannking “purely

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Market Review - 09/03/2010 22:52GMT Euro declines on debt woes and Fitch's comments The dollar traded higher against most major currencies except the Japanese Yen on Tuesday. The safe-haven yen rose broadly amid Japanese repatriation flows while the single currency fell on concerns peripheral euro zone economies could face debt problems similar to those of Greece.      Euro extended Monday's decline against the greenback after staging a brief bounce to 1.3636 in Asia with

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Published at 23:49 (GMT) 09 Mar Aussie extends gains to fresh 6-week highs of 0.9163, up from 0.9150-55, after strong Westpac consumer confidence data, the 3 strong data from the 3 big 4 Australia banks, since yesterday. Australia Westpac-MI consumer confidence for March +0.2% to 117.3, despite the latest 25bps RBA hike to 4.00%. This comes after yesterday strong data from the other 2 big Aust banks. NAB Business conditions index for February jumps to +8 vs +3, business confidence index rises

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Published at 23:04 (GMT) 09 Mar   AUD/JPY Daily The spike-up from last session's pullback low of 81.22 is shifting focus towards the 82.55/80 congestion highs and need a sustained move above the latters to trigger stronger momentum to 83.27 ahead of 83.90. Bias upside unless prices slip back below 81.22 support. R5: 84.34 * 19 Jan high R4: 83.90 21 Jan 2010 high R3: 83.27 18 Jan 2010 low R2: 82.80 * 22 Feb high R1: 82.55 8 Mar high S1: 82.08 intraday level S2: 81.75 intraday level S3:

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The foreign currencies futures ended divergently on Tuesday, with the commodity currencies and the yen up and the European currencies down. The weakest link, the pound, led the decline. The US stock markets advanced, but oil and gold fell. The gold was hurt by China director of SAFE’s comments that US Treasury purchases are ongoing each day and that gold would be unlikely to be China’s primary investment to diversify its reserve holdings due to price volatility and China’s impact on the

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Risk appetite returned to the marketplace (albeit modestly) despite what was a cocktail of US economic data that continued to look anything but robust. US equities reversed early session losses and managed to squeeze up marginally on the day. This elicited a turn lower in the US dollar, which had been recently supported by the overall flight to safety of late. EUR/USD managed to creep back above 1.36 in the latter half of the session after making a low near 1.3540 earlier. There was talk of

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USD : Higher, risk aversion re-emerges on European debt worries JPY : Higher, supported by a return of risk aversion, leading index rose more than expected EUR : Lower, concern about Greek debt troubles, ECB’s Stark says debt places strains on monetary policy GBP: Lower, Moody’s and Fitch warnings on banks and debt, weak housing data, trade deficit widened CAD and AUD : AUD & CAD higher, Australia’s job ads strong, tracking equities, gains versus Europe Overview USD traded higher Tuesday

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Some of the latest price movements in the EUR have reflected a growing sense of optimism in the Euro-Zone, given the mild easing of debt concerns in Greece. Switzerland also appears to be having a positive effect on the region with a recent report which showed retail sales climbing much higher than forecast last month. Investor confidence in the region also appears to have risen slightly better than was anticipated. Whether Europe can sustain this bullish momentum is yet to be seen, but so far

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Published at 13:41 (GMT) 09 Mar More FX comments from the MPC, this time rate setter Rzonca says on as Reuters panel discussion: "It is very important that we avoid zloty appreciation. The strong zloty appreciation phenomenon that we have seen over the last two weeks is a phenomenon that I hope will stop". Again, very strong wording, a very explicit time horizon - underlying that the NBP is getting more and more edgy about the strong zloty. Not that this should be a big surprise - we warned

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An Outlook for the Canadian Dollar The Canadian Dollar has a history of moving higher from mid March to the end of May. Will history repeat this year? Seasonal influences A recent seasonality study by EquityClock.com based on data for the past 20 years shows that the Canadian Dollar has a seasonal sweet spot between mid March and the end of May. On average, the Canadian Dollar has gained 2.0 percent per period against the U.S. Dollar. The sweet spot corresponds to a period when seasonal demand