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********************************************************** Market Review -     27/08/2008 21:07 GMT Euro rises versus dollar on hawkish comments by ECB's Weber The euro rose on Wednesday after trading above its six-month low at 1.4570 (made on Tuesday) as comments by a European Central bank official rekindled speculation about an interest rate increase in the eurozone to quell persistent inflation pressure. Investors also remained wary of nagging troubles in the U.S. financial system

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The greenback is still holding its recent gains across the broad with no major change in spite of today's surge of oil prices. The data from US have improved recently and currently the speculations for a rate hike have increased especially by the recent release of the Fed's Minutes of 5 August meeting. We are just waiting for the fed to mention in its next meeting that the current interest rate levels are accommodative to start pricing on coming hikes but until now it has not got the interest

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EURO The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.4775 level and was supported around the $1.4630 level.  Different factors led to gains by the common currency. First, tropical storm Gustav is nearing the U.S. oil-rich gulf region and chased NYMEX crude oil futures for October delivery above the $119 handle, leading to U.S. dollar weakness.  Second, the U.S. Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation reported more U.S. banks

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Better than expected US economic data helped offset higher oil prices in the NY session and boosted the greenback higher against the majors.  Oil jumped towards a close near $118.35 after opening the session about $1 below that.  Hurricane Gustav has traders everywhere wearing their meteorologist hats and we expect the price action in oil to remain quite sticky above the $117 mark until fears about the storm's potential destruction dissipate. In terms of US data, the durable goods

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Dollar down on speculation over US data The dollar was down against the Euro and Yen Wednesday on Speculation that the Fed will refrain from a rate hike in the short term. With US durable goods orders out today at 12:30 GMT, analysts are predicting a decline in orders due to reduced consumption. The expectation is that bookings for goods in the US were unchanged in July. If the data comes out below expectations we could well see downward pressure on the greenback. ``The dollar still faces some

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Forex News and Events: The Dollar rallied to a 6-month high against the Euro on Tuesday following weak German data that raised concerns of recession in the euro zone and raised expectations of interest rate cuts. The Dollar has extended its rally of the past month, touching a 2008 high against a basket of currencies on the view that economic weakness, once US, is spreading globally. The Ifo German business climate index for August fell more than expected to a three-year low of 94.8 vs 97.5,

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********************************************************** Market Review -   26/08/2008 21:45 GMT U.S. dollar rises to a six-month high versus euro on weak eurozone data The greenback rose to a six-month high against the euro on Tuesday as eurozone data suggested economic weakness had spreaded out beyond the United States, which may imply an interest rate cut by European Central Bank while a jump in U.S. consumer confidence and new home sales also helped to boost the dollar.   

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Quote: ‘The pure products of America go crazy – mountain folk from Kentucky or the ribbed north end of Jersey with its isolate lakes and valleys, its deaf-mutes, thieves.’ William Carlos Williams (1883-1963) The News: US FDIC has 117 banks on its watch list and says it may have to borrow money from the Treasury and that it might increase premiums paid into its $ 45.2B fund. The Numbers: British Summer Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets. From today DE August CPI for the

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The market tried to rally this morning, getting a strong surge from the get-go. They backed off on the Nasdaq 100 with the S&P 500 holding up much better, and then they surged to the session highs, reaching 1900 on the NDX but couldn't punch through. The SPX reached near 1276 but also couldn't punch through, and then for the next several hours they went into a steady slide lower, reaching the pullback lows on the Nasdaq 100 and matching the multi-week lows on the S&P 500 at the 1264

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The enclosed daily chart of the cash NDX shows that the 8/15 rally peak at 1973.56 and the subsequent decline back beneath 1890 appears to represent a (failed) test of the major Oct-Aug resistance line, a reversal from that down trendline to beneath the declining 200 DMA, and a return to test important near-term support at 1870.75 created during the Jul-Aug (near-term) bottoming period. All of this has bearish price implications for the NDX and holders of the Q's ETF (Nasdaq: QQQQ). Inability

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EURO The euro moved sharply lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4570 level and was capped around the $1.4760 level.  The common currency reached its lowest level since 14 February as traders continued to scale back their expectations concerning regarding eurozone interest rates, especially as EMU-15 economic data continue to weaken.  Data released in the U.S. today saw July new home sales climb 2.4% to an annualized 515,000 rate,

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Higher oil prices helped push the greenback lower in the NY session as speculation that Hurricane Gustav might impact oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico intensified.  Oil rallied nearly $5 from the intraday lows to a high near $117.80/bbl before tapering off to a close around $116.20/bbl.  We would expect range-bound trading in the commodity for the balance of the week as Gustav make its way towards the Gulf, expected to reach there sometime Sunday. US economic data continued to

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The euro fell for a third day against the dollar on a report today that showed business confidence in Germany slumped to a three-year low. ``There's a good chance for the euro to go lower,'' said Tsutomu Soma, a bond and currency dealer at Okasan Securities Co. in Tokyo. ``People are giving up on bets for euro gains as the chance of an ECB rate hike fades away.'' The euro also declined today versus the yen on concern credit-market losses and slowing exports will stop the European Central Bank

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Forex News and Events: The Dollar dropped against the Yen on Monday, pressured by sharp losses in US equities as remaining credit worries forced investors to reduce risky trades. In a thin market due to UK holiday, trades were focusing on US equities, led by sharp fell in financial stocks. However, Dollar gained against the Euro and Sterling on views that declining growth in Euro-zone and United Kingdom could force their Central Banks to cut benchmark interest rates. Yesterday

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USD -- America’s currency was back on the defensive again throughout most of last week, as a mixed bag of economic data left market participants questioning both the veracity and timing of an ostensible US economic turnaround, and the direction of monetary policy. While last week’s Housing Starts Index was somewhat encouraging (965K in Jul. vs. 960K exp.), an unexpected worsening of the Leading Indicators Index (-0.7% in Jul. vs. -0.1% prior), coupled with a slightly worse-than-expected

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Quote: ‘Auditors are people who have found accountancy too exciting. Their professional task is to walk the battlefield long after the shouting is over, bayoneting the wounded.’ Sir John Banham (1940-) The News: Deputy Bank of England governor Bean says economic slowdown to ‘drag on for considerable time’ and ‘the shocks impinging on us this is at least as challenging a time as back in the 1970’s’. The Numbers: British Summer Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets. 00:50 JP

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Apart from the intense volatility in the US Oil Fund ETF (AMEX: USO) lately, let's notice that purely from a pattern perspective since the low of 90.04 on August 15 subsequent bouts of weakness have created a series of "higher lows," today's low of 91.83 included. Right now, from a strict near-term technical perspective, as long as the prior pullback low of 90.96 (8/20) remains intact, my work argues that the USO is establishing a near-term bottom. A violation of 90.96 will compromise the

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It was quite a negative way to start the week and not a good sign for the bulls, although key support at last week's lows did hold in the afternoon part of the session. In the morning they gapped down hard, bounced, formed mini bear flags and then went sharply lower all morning until about the lunch hour, at which point they stabilized and then went back and forth for the rest of the afternoon, rolling over late in the session to nominal new lows and then bouncing in the last 15 minutes. Net

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The US Dollar continued to impress in Asia despite Wall Street taking a beating in NY yesterday, thus reinforcing the fact that the dismal outlook for Europe may be more of the current focal point for traders. The DOW's 2% drop did set off a wave of selling in the Yen crosses, as GBP/USD, EUR/JPY, AUD/JPY and NZD/JPY all sold off early on, only to rebound a bit later in the session. GBP/JPY touched a 3 month low as it dove to a low just below 201.70, however,  the AUD/USD took the brunt

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Eur/$ is chopping from last week’s low/test of longer term support in the at 1.4620/30 area (both a 50% retracement from the June 2007 low at 1.3265 and base of the nearly 3 year bullish channel, see weekly chart/2nd below). Note too that the market broke temporarily below, before reversing back above, the bullish trendline since Dec, a positive “false break�(see daily chart below). With the market oversold after the last month of sharp declines, these recent bullish signs suggest at least a

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********************************************************** Market Review -   25/08/2008 21:50 GMT U.S. dollar fell against yen and Swiss franc on risk aversion The greenback dropped against the Japanese yen and Swiss franc on Monday due to tumbling U.S. equity markets as nagging credit worries prompted investors to trim risky trades. However, the dollar gained versus the euro and at one point rose to a two-year high against the British pound, backed by a predominant view that declining

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When UK’s away, pound comes out to play U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) received a major boost through a sizable cable sell off during the Asian session dragging down all the majors against the greenback. Sentiment slowly reversed during the remainder of the day picking up speed as US equities tumbled on reports another US bank failed and speculation of large write downs in Q3. July Existing Home Sales supported rising 3.1% to 5 Million from 4.85 Million in June.   In the U.S. share

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The NY session saw the greenback on a rollercoaster ride as the buck fought a slumping US stock market and ended the session mixed against the majors.  In broad terms, stocks plunged -2% in the session as financials plunged more than -3% on worries that the potential buyout of a major investment house announced last week may not materialize. Meanwhile, US economic data showed more signs of a bottom in housing. Existing home sales jumped 3.1% in July as prices fell to an annual rate -7.1%

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EURO The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4695 level and was capped around the $1.4805 level.  Technically, today’s intraday high and low were around the 38.2% and 76.4% retracement of the move from $1.4630 to $1.4910, respectively.  The common currency was on the defensive for a couple of reasons. First, U.S. July existing home sales were up 3.9% to an annualized 5.0 million rate, possible evidence the beleaguered

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The buck pared gains in the London session as oil prices bounced a touch from overnight lows.  With no economic data to speak of the market seems to have been primarily focused on commodity prices.  Oil popped about $1 in the session to a close near $115.50/bbl.  It will be interesting to follow the price action here today after the 5.4% plunge in oil prices on Friday. EUR/USD traded up about 50 points after opening the session near the 1.4715 mark.  Meanwhile, GBP/USD

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The dollar rose against the euro on speculation a drop in oil prices will support growth in the world's largest energy consumer. The greenback traded on a high versus the yen following the biggest decline in crude costs in more than three years. The euro fell against the yen before a survey tomorrow that may show business confidence in Germany slid to the lowest since 2005, German business confidence will discourage the European Central Bank from raising interest rates. ``Oil prices have come

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Forex News and Events: The Dollar surged on Friday, recovering from the previous day's losses, as gloomy British growth data backed views of a slowing global economy and raised prospects of interest rate cuts outside the United States. A sharp drop in US crude oil prices to below $115 per barrel and comments by influential investor Warren Buffett that he has no bets against the Dollar also added to the US currency's upward momentum. UK data showed the British economy stalled on Q2, suggesting

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The Asia session began the week with a move in Cable that proved to be the first domino in a series of currency moves that lifted the US Dollar to loftier heights.  The proverbial spark in the powder keg was an option barrier at 1.8500 in GBP/USD, and once that gave way, the flood gates were open as the pair collapsed from 1.8502 to 1.8413 in a matter of mere minutes as stops were triggered in a holiday thinned UK market. The fall in GBP/USD continued later in the session to just a hair

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Past Week's Data and Events The US currency consolidated during the past week and the same should happen during the last week of August and ahead of the Labor Day holiday. The geopolitical pressures have (officially) alleviated, but all eyes should remain on commodities. The dollar remains overbought in the short term, but any corrective decline this week should be brief and shallow. This is because most of the market missed buying dollars on July 22 and is waiting for the second chance.

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********************************************************** Market Review -   22/08/2008 15:50 GMT The greenback rebounded in tandem with U.S. stocks and retreat in oil prices Despite falling on Thursday versus other major currencies, dollar was able to stage a strong rebound across the board on Friday due to several factors, including weakness in oil prices, strength in U.S. stocks and the falling British pound on concerns over U.K. economy.      Although oil prices

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Highlights US banks still in the spotlight – Fannie and Freddie to be nationalized? ifo unlikely to have deteriorated further in August Economic signals in the run-up to ECB meeting After the US dollar’s sharp rebound in the first half of August, a moderate counter-movement began a few days ago. EUR-USD recovered from about 1.46 at the start of the week to around 1.4840. The yen made similar gains: USD-JPY fell from 110.50 to just over 109. The highest gains – well over two per cent during the

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US stocks rally taking Dollar for the Ride U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) rallied before Fed Chief Bernanke’s speech on speculation that Lehman Brother’s may receive capital from the Korean Development Bank. Also supporting was a massive drop in Oil on the back of easing geopolitical concerns and reopening of major pipelines in Turkey. Bernanke took some of the wind out of the Dollar’s rally though with comments that slowing US growth would mediate inflation concerns indicating that the Fed would

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EURO The euro moved lower vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested bids around the US$ 1.4790 level and was capped around the $1.4910 level.   Technically, today’s intraday low was right around the 38.2% retracement of the move from $1.4630 to $1.4910.  The U.S. dollar gained some ground after state-run Korea Development Bank indicated it may target Lehman Brothers in an acquisition.  Traders await a speech from Federal Reserve Chairman Bernanke later

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Overview A little unwinding of the US dollar’s recent dramatic strength took place, Kiwi doing best followed by the Yen and the won worst, which helped many hard hit commodities to also rally. Nymex Crude Oil reached $122.00 per barrel, from a low at $111.50 last week, and spot Gold $839.00 per ounce from $774.00. The best performer this week has been LME Tin, +15.5% to $21,950 per tonne, closely followed by New York’s Cocoa futures +12.0% to $2,849 per metric ton. Treasury yields dipped

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The greenback was higher in London trading on a bad batch of data across the pond and a small pullback in oil prices.  Oil slipped a little more than $1 towards the $120.15/bbl area just as the London session came to a close.  Meanwhile, economic data out of Europe dealt the markets a dose of reality and showed that economic deterioration continues there, despite the better than expected numbers of late. Data in the Euro-zone went back to showing continued weakness.  Industrial

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The Dollar gained slightly on Friday as the market awaited a speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke. Yet gains were limited as there is sentiment that the greenback’s recent levels were overpriced. Bernanke’s speech will be key in gleaning more clues about the US economy and future interest rate changes. The Dollar was also up against the Euro after a report showed that European industrial orders fell at the most in more than 6 years in June. The dollar climbed 0.4 percent to $1.4843

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Forex News and Events: The Dollar fell broadly on Thursday as worries of wider credit-related losses at some US financial firms made investors abandon risky trades, starting a rally in the Yen and Swiss Franc. Yesterday surge in Crude Oil at $122.05 high a barrel also took some steam out of the Dollar's recent strong recovery, setting it on track for its worst one-day fall in five months against a basket of major currencies. UsdJpy fell as low as 108.14 and rebounded still down 1.16% at

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Quote: ‘Had we but world enough, and time, This coyness, lady, were no crime. The grave’s a fine and private place, But none I think do there embrace.’ Andrew Marvell (1621-1678) The News: Chinese securities regulators plan to allow the issue exchangeable bonds which will eventually be swapped for shares in yet another attempt to prop up the stock market. The Numbers: British Summer Time, with expectations and previous figures in brackets. 00:50 JP Bank of Japan Minutes of July 14/15th

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The markets were mixed at the close on Thursday. After a brief rally in the morning, they went to lower lows on the Nasdaq 100, in fact the lows for the entire 5 day pullback. The S&P 500 refused to fold and did not take out its lows, and then they turned it around late morning, extended the move into early afternoon, and with about an hour to go the indices were at their highs for the day. The S&P 500 actually broke out across price resistance but encountered declining moving average

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This session, the US Dollar got up off of the mat and dusted itself off after being knocked to the canvas in NY by the one-two punch of rising oil, and unstable US financials. EUR/USD peaked out early in Asia at 4 pips over the 1.4900 big figure, and it was all downhill from there as traders weighed their options and chose the lesser of two evils....the Greenback. The pair eased its way to a session low of 1.4864 before a 10 pip or so rebound at sessions end. On one side we have the Dollar,