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The foreign currency futures open little changed ahead of the vital NFP report after showing a mild bearish tone since Thursday. Following this pause, they should attempt another upmove early next week and possibly as early as post the release of the US economic data. Countering this outlook is the ongoing Greek drama. Reuters reported that Eurozone governments may have to provide up to 145 billion euros to Athens under a second emergency loan programme for Greece, which is 15 billion euros

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The overnight session was market by very quiet trade as no headlines emerged out of the Eurozone and investors are waiting so see the results of today’s Non Farm Payrolls figures before committing to new positions.  Most of the market chatter that has been circulating is focusing on the possibility of central bank intervention in the currency markets, which is something we have been expecting all week.  The focus remains on the Japanese Yen and the Swiss Franc, as both currencies are

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Crude Brent crude posted small gains on Thursday and closed just shy above 112 USD per barrel (USD/bbl). Regarding the EIA’s weekly petroleum status report released back on Wednesday, it confirmed a relatively low implied demand for oil products in the U.S. in January (see the chart). The main contributor was a lower than usual consumption of motor gasoline. As far as today’s trading is concerned, the eye-catcher is the U.S. payrolls report. For now we doubt that the US data will be able to

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Chart of the week NYMEX WTI Crude Oil FUNDAMENTALS U.S. crude futures fell this week, dropping to a six-week low as Wednesday's data showing rising crude oil and gasoline stockpiles and weak demand continued to generate bearish sentiment. U.S. crude stockpiles have risen sharply for two consecutive weeks, according to government data, and the latest increase in the week to Jan. 27 was more than 4 million barrels as gasoline demand languishes below year-ago levels. OPEC oil production in

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Published at 10:30 (GMT) 03 Feb 10:30 GMT - USD/MXN still looks to have one more shot down to the 12.765/748 zone over the next 3 hours. Once that zone is thoroughly probed, we still think that the daily oscillators such as RSI and Stochastics are extremely o/s enough to warrant a solid reversal from near the 200-day MA at 12.748 soon. More immediate target zone from there is 13.00/078. R.Z R5: 13.25 * 24 Jan high R4: 13.193 25 Jan high R3: 13.078 * break level R2: 13.056 30 Jan high R1: 13

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Forex News and Events: Talks between Greece and its private sector creditors have still not come to a conclusion and there has been a complete absence of updates on progress this week – raising the uncomfortable possibility that negotiations drag on into another week. The immediate consequences of this lack of resolution are clear; EURUSD has repeatedly failed to garner much buying interest up towards 1.3200 as investors remain concerned that talks may still fail, and risk appetite has failed

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Equities Following the West’s lead on Wednesday, Asian markets rallied on Thursday. The Nikkei gained .8% to 8877, as financial stocks led the gains. Sharp tumbled 16% to a 31-year low after warning of a record loss for the upcoming year. The Kospi climbed 1.3%, as LG Electronics advanced 7.4%, posing its 9th straight gain. In China, the Hang Seng and the Shanghai Composite both soared 2%, while Australia’s ASX 200 advanced 1%. European markets posted modest gains, led by materials stocks,

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Technical Analysis EUR/USD “1.40 is a good target. It wouldn't be a surprise if it [EUR/USD] got up to 1.45 in the fourth quarter� - Bank of New York Mellon (based on CNBC) Industry outlook Upward correction is expected to end in the nearest future, since the pair is approaching an impenetrable for now resistance located at 1.3250. This in turn implies a sell off down to 1.3000 en route to a lower level at 1.2930. Traders’ sentiment The situation with the ratio between the longs and the shorts

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EUR/USD The potential bearish classical pattern discussed earlier remains valid while the pair is gradually approaching its neckline as seen on the provided graph. SMA 50-colored in red- becomes closer and is valued at 1.3110 where a break of which will weaken the neckline of the pattern. MACD traditional is definitely negative reinforcing the bearish scenario. Note that, choppy trading may continue as traders are waiting for NFP data from US today. The trading range for today is among key

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Published at 06:58 (GMT) 03 Feb 03 Feb USD/CNY 1-Yr NDF Daily 06:59 GMT - Intraday strength capped by the daily down trendline from 15-Dec's high and further slippage below intraday support at 6.2655 will help bears regain downside pressure towards the recent low of 6.2570. On the upside, lift above 6.2905 hurdle willtrigger a bullish breakout of inverted Head-shoulder pattern. [W.T] R5: 6.3015 13 Jan low R4: 6.2971 * 23 Jan high R3: 6.2905 * 24/25 Jan highs R2: 6.2876 Neckline R1: 6.2815 Down

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Risk currencies sunk lower in Asia today, with some investors likely choosing to stay on the sidelines ahead of the payrolls report out of the US at 08:30EST. The few headline data releases out during the session also failed to alter investor sentiment. Equity markets faced the same issues, but they were also hampered by downbeat corporate earnings. Overnight, Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao stated that China is considering how to get more involved in assisting Europe with its debt crisis by

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Key news Chinese and Japanese service PMIs improved slightly in January Greek Finance Minister Venizelos says the ECB should be part of a debt relief and that an agreement must be struck “in the next three or four days at the most�. Main release today is US non-farm payrolls where we look for a below-consensus reading following the strong rise in December. Markets Overnight In China the HSBC Service PMI in January improved slightly from 51.5 to 51.9 and in line with the manufacturing PMIs

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Published at 06:37 (GMT) 03 Feb 3 Feb USD/MYR Daily 06:37 GMT - Intraday trade remains subdued despite the oversold posture seen on daily technical tools and this is keeping the bear-run from 3.1535 high firmly in play and slip of 3.0120 low set prior session will trigger renewed weakness to 3.0070 then 2.9980.[W.T] R5: 3.0664 * 200-day MA line R4: 3.0600 * 30 Jan high R3: 3.0410 31 Oct low R2: 3.0350 2 Feb high R1: 3.0270 intraday level S1: 3.0120 2 Feb low S2: 3.0070 * 12 Sep low S3: 2.9980

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Published at 06:22 (GMT) 03 Feb 03 Feb USD/KRW Daily 06:22 GMT - Intraday trade slightly choppy but with the daily down trendline from 12-Jan's high keeping upside protected, shorts are still favoured and eyeing downside extension towards the 1110.00/1109.35 area. [W.T] R5: 1137.3 * 20 Jan high R4: 1133.0 20 Jan low R3: 1131.0 * 1 Feb high R2: 1125.95 * Trendline fr 12/1 high R1: 1124.5 1 Feb low, gap S1: 1110.0* 4 Nov low S2: 1109.35 * 200-day MA line S3: 1100.0 31 Oct low S4: 1094.5 * 28 Oct

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Published at 06:02 (GMT) 03 Feb Rumours - just talks - of huge stoploss orders/ options building below the SNB 1.2000 floor. SNB has vowed to buy unlimited amount of foreign currencies vs CHF to enforce the CHF cap (EUR/CHF floor) of 1.2000. Talks of >EUR15-20bln orders just below 1.2000 - starting from 1.1999 - all the way down. Huge stoploss orders are lurking below the 1.2000 - given the "assurance" from SNB that it will defend 1.2000 peg set on Sep 6 by then SNB Pres Philipp Hildebrand

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ENERGY CRUDE OIL closed lower on Thursday and the midrange close sets the stage for a steady to higher opening on Friday. Stochastics and the RSI are bearish signalling that sideways to lower prices are possible nearterm. If it renews January's decline, December's low crossing is the next downside target. Closes above the reaction high crossing are needed to confirm that a shortterm low has been posted. NATURAL GAS closed higher on Thursday as it consolidated some of the decline off last

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Published at 05:44 (GMT) 03 Feb 3 Feb AUD/JPY Daily 05:45 GMT - With upside capped by the 81.92 resistance, intraday tradeis settling into consolidation with prices cracking below 81.28 support and risking a deeper setback to 81.05 then stronger 80.50 consolidative low. [W.T] R5: 83.20 * 1 Nov high R4: 82.84 * 26 Jan high R3: 82.64 27 Jan high R2: 81.92 30 Jan/2 Feb highs R1: 81.66 3 Feb high S1: 81.05 intraday level S2: 80.50 * 30 Jan/1 Feb lows S3: 80.07 * Support line fr 23/11 low S4: 79.40

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Markets were relatively subdued overnight as investors await the all important US non farm payrolls data release tonight. The median forecast for this figure is for growth of 145,000 jobs after a rise of 200,000 in December. The unemployment rate is expected to stay at a three year low of 8.5%. Figures released overnight showed that US unemployment claims came in slightly lower than expected at 367,000, falling by 12,000 for the week ending January 28. The USD mostly treaded water overnight

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Published at 05:29 (GMT) 03 Feb NKS/DJ : IMF Dep MD Naoyuki Shinohara (former MoF top FX man) said Friday that economic growth must be preserved as countries around the world address their medium-term fiscal imbalances, and said it is important to protect the poor from the impact of fiscal consolidation. IMF Shinohara said "One of the most immediate global policy challenges is to address medium-term fiscal imbalances while being careful not to kill growth. Most advanced economies are planing

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Published at 05:22 (GMT) 03 Feb Cross/JPY under light selling pressure, though markets a tad quiet ahead of US NFP data at 1330GMT. USD/JPY at 76.18-20, focus on the 76.00 option barriers, with huge stoploss below. More options rumoured at 75.50/75.25 and huge ones at psychological 75.00 level - below the Post WWII lows of 75.31 seen on October 31. Speculation BoJ/MoF will come in ahead of 75.00 handle. Good to watch for any BoJ/MoF rate check rumours. Offer at 76.30-50 for now, as AUD/JPY,

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Market Commentary Key Notes: Oil fell and gold gained ahead of January U.S. nonfarm payrolls report. U.S. weekly jobless claims declined more than forecast last week, indicative of further recuperation in the country's battered jobs market. Fed deemed that euro zone crisis still pose a risk to U.S recovery and pledge to do everything it can to protect the recovery of U.S. economy. Chinese Premier said that Beijing is deliberating an increased participation in EFSF and ESM without stating any

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Market Commentary US Equities: U.S. equities closed flat ahead of Friday's key employment report, but technology stocks advanced after robust earnings from chipmaker Qualcomm as the counter advanced 2% reaching its highest level in 12 years. The hope over the labor market was reinforced as U.S. weekly jobless claims declined more than forecast in the latest week. Health care was one of the worst performing sectors of S&P 500 as Merck & Co Inc, the second largest U.S. drugmaker dropped

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Published at 05:11 (GMT) 03 Feb Short-covering bids after yest's sharp slide, saw USD/INR open at 49.12 nearly steady from Thu's close. Brief pullback below 49.10 however failed to gather momentum as stocks opened in red and pair was squeezed up towards 49.20 thereafter. Inability of EUR/USD longs amid news of debt 'black hole' in Greek finances, kept risk-appetite subdued into Far East lunch hours. Initial 48.90 marks the first line of defense, with extended dips to be hindered by caution

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Published at 04:52 (GMT) 03 Feb 03 Feb USD/INR Daily 04:18 GMT - Break below the 49.300 congestion low is helping to retaindownside pressure and current recovery from yesterday's low of 48.945 should continue to attract sellers with bears seeking later extension towards next target at 48.610. Only move above49.820 resistance to kick-start stronger corrective upmove. [W.T] R5: 50.06 19 Jan low R4: 49.92 24 Jan low R3: 49.82 * 27 Jan high R2: 49.665 1 Feb high R1: 49.30 Previous congestion lows

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Published at 03:24 (GMT) 03 Feb

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Published at 02:39 (GMT) 03 Feb USD/PHP retained an upside bias after a firmer open at 42.72 (vs 42.66 close on Thu). Prices were squeezed up to 42.82 highs as EUR/USD tripped on stop-losses. Stabilization in the latter cross, has since seen spot consolidate within the tested range. 42.65 marks the first line of support though we do expect dips to sustain ahead of US jobs data and position adjustments ahead of the weekend. Separately Treasurer Tan expressed plans to sell USD-denominated bonds

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Published at 02:34 (GMT) 03 Feb

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Published at 02:31 (GMT) 03 Feb 03 Feb USD/CNH Daily 01:34 GMT - Decline seen last 2 sessions is losing momentum with support seen at 6.2855 and does not rule out the unfolding of a potential 1-month plus inverted Head-shoulder pattern and this reversal pattern need to see confirmation on a decisive move above the 6.3142 resistance. [W.T] R5: 6.3209 16 Jan high R4: 6.3142 * 31 Jan high R3: 6.3126 neckline R2: 6.3075 1 Feb high R1: 6.3005 2 Feb high S1: 6.2855 * 27 Jan low S2: 6.2738 ** 19 Jan

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Published at 01:19 (GMT) 03 Feb 03 Feb USD/TWD Daily 01:08 GMT - Bears extended decline below the 200-day MA line last session but further progress on the downside hindered by the oversold condition seen on daily tools and exposing room for consolidation/rebound but with overall bearish outlook intact, sellinginto upticks favoured. [W.T] R5: 29.882 * 12 Jan low R4: 29.855 30 Jan high R3: 29.770 * 31 Jan high R2: 29.680 1 Feb high R1: 29.550 2 Feb high S1: 29.450 2 Feb low S2: 29.283 * 13 Sep

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Published at 00:37 (GMT) 03 Feb Mixed overnight performance saw the Nikkei slip in opening hours and provide JGBs a leg up. US initial claims dropped to 367k (mkt: 371k) from 379k prev. Fed Chairman Bernanke said that the Fed was trying to balance between its dual mandates of inflation goal and employment. The Chairman said that the bank will not sacrifice inflation for jobs growth. Yields on the 10Y JGBs fell to 0.940% while Mar-12 contracts retreated after surging to the technical target of

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Published at 00:34 (GMT) 03 Feb 03 Feb USD/KRW Daily 00:26 GMT - Strong reversal from this week's high of 1131.00 is helping to retain downside pressure and slip of 1117.00 support will trigger renewed weakness to 1110.00 ahead of the 200-day MA line at 1109.35. Only swing above the newly established down trendline from 12-Jan's high at 1125.95 to shift focus towards upside. [W.T] R5: 1133.00 20 Jan low R4: 1131.00 * 1 Feb high R3: 1125.95 * Trendline fr 12/1 high R2: 1124.50 1 Feb low, gap

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Published at 00:07 (GMT) 03 Feb MoF Jun Azumi warned that speculative JPY buying has been strengthening since last week due to low Fed interest rates. Strongly concerned that 1-sided JPY rises do not reflect economic fundamentals. USD/JPY at 76.18-20, eye 3-month lows of 76.03 again, yest low was 76.05 - though some screens quotes was 75.93 - just for info - but not traded there. Focus on talks of 76.00 option barriers, and then 75.50/ huge 75.00 - which are lurking below the post WWII lows of

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Published at 00:03 (GMT) 03 Feb Good to watch both BoJ/MoF on USD/JPY and SNB on EUR/CHF - as acting SNB Pres Thomas Jordan, in FT interview, vowed SNB will continue intervention. EUR/CHF at 1.2049-51, it hit 4-half month lows of 1.2031 this week, lowest since Sept 15 1.2015, not long after the SNB's imposed the 1.20 EUR/CHF peg (CHF cap) on Sep 6 under then SNB Pres Philipp Hildebrand. Speculation of huge options barriers at 1.2025/ and the 1.2000 peg, as markets "braced" for any break of the

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Published at 23:52 (GMT) 02 Feb 03 Feb NZD/USD Daily Settling back from test of the upper channel at .8370 and dips see support now at .8311/00 area. Overbought reading caution a stronger pullback with lower support seen at .8249 then .8214/00 area. Further upside seen limited for now with resistance at .8282/90 and the .8400 level. [P.L] R5: .8500 figure R4: .8460 5 Sep high R3: .8400 * figure R2: .8382/90 * 8 Sep high, channel R1: .8370 2 Feb high S1: .8311/00 2 Feb low, figure S2: .8249 *

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Published at 23:17 (GMT) 02 Feb 03 Feb EUR/AUD Daily 23:05 GMT - Spurred by the break of 2-week rising-wedge, bears extended decline to 1.2228 low last session, falling short of the beginning point of this pattern at 1.2222 and the appearance of a Hammer yesterday is exposing risk of a rebound back to 1.2336 then 1.2416. [W.T] R5: 1.2615 4 Jan high R4: 1.2504 6/9 Jan highs R3: 1.2475 * 30 Jan high R2: 1.2416 31 Jan high R1: 1.2336 1 Feb high S1: 1.2222 ** 17 Jan low S2: 1.2000 Psychological